John Singler Transition to turbulence, small disturbances and sensitivity analysis Predicting transition to turbulence is one of the longstanding problems in fluid mechanics. Recently, new transition scenarios have been proposed that are based on the sensitivity of the linearized equations of motion with respect to small disturbances. These new “mostly linear” theories have increased our understanding of the transition process, but the role of nonlinearity has not been explored. In this talk, we explore the interaction of small disturbances with nonlinear model transition problems. We demonstrate that small forcing or small wall roughness can trigger transition. Also, we use sensitivity analysis to predict the behavior of the disturbed systems.